Day 3 of NCAA Tournament Regionals: Predictions

We have made it to the final day of Regionals! Some expected results, some upsets (but are they upsets?), and some head scratching performances by teams. It's madness and we are here for it! But we would also like to predict as much of it as possible!


Let's start today with evaluating how the model's corrected Winner and Elimination predictions fared when compared against the results.


Winner's Bracket

Interesting notes:

  1. The model captured 75% of the correct outcomes, same as the last round.

  2. 8 results were predicted incorrectly in last round, 3 of those incorrectly predicted teams also won their winner's bracket game. This tracks with what I expected to happen (about half would self-correct).

  3. The standard deviation of error on the margin of victory difference has gone down a bit from the first round, but not significantly.

  4. Of the upsets, our model predicted 1 of the 4 upsets which is not great. Curious to know what information could be gathered which may have seen these upsets coming.



Loser's Bracket



Interesting notes:

  1. The model captured 63% of the correct outcomes, same as the last round.

  2. 8 results were predicted incorrectly in last round, 2 of those incorrectly predicted teams also won their loser's bracket game. So the teams the model overvalued performed better in the loser's bracket than they did in the winner's bracket.

  3. The distribution of misses I would expect to be more clustered at the bottom near the more statistically even teams, but that was not the case.

  4. Team notes:

  5. LSU? Really??? The model predicted that LSU was not going to perform well, but LSU is the team with the toughest schedule, the tested team.

  6. Campbell, Grand Canyon, Canisius all got some love from the model that did not seem deserved. Curious as to what the model might be picking up that did not translate to results.


Day 3 Predictions: Winner's Bracket Game 2:


Note: We have included the predicted game with an adjusted odds column to represent what odds a team has of making it out of the regionals as some teams will have to win 2 in a row.


Interesting Notes:

  1. Nearly all of the seeded teams that made it to the Winner Game 2 undefeated have more than a 80% chance of making it to the super regionals.

  2. Virginia Tech and Alabama, even with having to come back through the losers bracket, still has better than a 50% chance of making it on to Super Regionals.

  3. Texas is the only unseeded team who is undefeated to have better than 50% odds of moving on.

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